Online Football Betting - Some Thoughts

  Probability


Probability is the chance of a particular event occurring. For example, in tossing a coin, there are two possible outcomes: heads or tails. If the price offered on an event occurring is equal to its probability, then the price can be deemed fair (in the above example, Evens either event).In attempting to predict the outcome of football matches, an approximation of probability can only be made by looking at historical evidence, along with any other influential factors. For extended events, unknown factors (e.g. weather) can affect the chance of a particular event occurring. `Fair` prices are educated guesses of the expected probability of an event occurring, since exact calculations are impossible. Bookmakers form an opinion on the probability of an event occurring and price it accordingly. There is a potential for profit if they are wrong, assuming, of course, that the punter notices the error.


Fixed Odds


Fixed odds` betting has its origins in the fixed prizes offered by late nineteenth-century newspapers for forecasting match outcomes. Bookmakers still offer `fixed odds.` The term applies more to high street betting offices, who publish a long list of football matches and their odds for the coming weekend several days in advance. This is an expensive process and cannot be repeated if mistakes are made or if the bookmaker needs to alter a price. Once the list goes to print, the betting odds become fixed. An Internet bookmaker has more flexibility and can change a price to manage his projected liability. However, even for high profile matches, with a large turnover, the odds available for the standard home/draw/away market do not change by more than about 10%.


Rating Systems & Value Bets


For football betting, determining such probabilities involves the analysis of previous events. Some punters use a numerical approach to historical analysis, known as ratings systems.


The traditional approach to beating the bookmaker has been through forecasting and prediction techniques in an attempt to reveal errors by the bookmaker. The punter approaches an event in exactly the same manner as the bookmaker, namely estimating the probability of a particular result and giving it a numerical value. This leads to both bookmaker and punter calculating their own price for a particular outcome. If the bookmaker`s price is greater than that of the punter, this constitutes a value bet.


Popular Betting Events


English football is without doubt the most significant betting medium. Since its inception in 1992, betting on the Football Premiership has increased in every season. The domestic cup competitions, predominantly the F.A. Cup, also attract vast numbers of online wagers. As a result of television coverage, top European players in the Champions` League have become household names. The Champions` League is also a source of many online football bets, even when there is no British team involved. The same can be said of Euro 2008. Despite all the `home` nations failing to qualify, online betting interest has been lively. World Cup 2010 has also seen some online betting action, even at this early stage.

Football betting has become very popular with football lovers. This is because betting can be a major money maker without the pain. There are several types of football betting and it seems each has their own appeal to the football masses. Football betting gives bettors an exciting and easy way to double or triple up their money.


Football betting doubles the fun and excitement of football leagues, championship cups and conferences. It has lured many sports betting lovers since there several options for betting now. Unlike the previous years, today, bettors need not to wait for phone lines to be active or go personally to a local bookie to place a bet. The introduction of online football betting makes it a whole lot easier and cheaper to bet for your favourite football team. This makes football betting a universal fun time.


How To Get The Most Out Of Football Betting


Many people bet on different kinds of sports to make it more exciting - and football is not an exception. Betting on a football game is a common thing for friends and families. It adds to the thrill of watching the game. It makes you cheer for the team you placed your bets on. But how do you know who to bet your money on?


Unlike other forms of betting or gambling (as the case may suggest), football betting is not a mere product of luck alone. It requires game analysis, players and team scrutiny and examination of the betting odds. There could even be a little computation for it. However, there is still no guarantee. Bet is still a bet - the exciting part is looking forward to winning and fear of losing.


To add to your game analysis method, here are some techniques and tips that you should use in deciding which football team or player to bet on:


Analyze the physical and mental state of the players. These will have effects in the overall performance of the player, as an individual, and the whole team as a group. Some players will still play even when injured. This means they won't be able to play well, and of course, there could be a higher chance of losing.

Analyze the strength and weakness of each team. Some team may be good in passing while others may be expert in running. These are important to help you come up with a betting decision.

Believe it or not, the location of the game also affects the actual performance of each team. If the game is played on real grass, the advantage is on the team whose home stadium is a real grass. This could affect other teams playing on an Astroturf home stadium.

The tips and techniques in football betting are endless. But at least these are some of the most basic. Before you set your bet, make sure you are betting on a team that has a higher chance of winning. Don't waste your money by betting without analyzing the game, teams and players.

Most Americans and many hardcore gamblers across the world make use of English football betting to earn several dollars every year by betting sports online. Not only is this used for earning huge income, they are also utilized for college football bettingsayhispanish.com. The excellent football betting advice that is recommended often is to research and find prior to choosing a pick.


Most of the football experts offer you betting tips; even the media circulates latest news regarding opponent teams & their book makers, key players who support several betting methods. But, when you place your wager on a sure favourite of yours, then this is surely the time when you need to pray. Unfortunately, the English football betting indeed is quite changeable. As there exist 1000s of factors that play against us. So, how can I cut down my betting losses? Well, the best way out is by making use of the money-management strategies. In fact this article is an eye opener which reflects on the methods & betting money-management strategies that offers a comparison statistically of the performance as per the betting odds & match results mainly of the pinnacle European leagues.


However, the commonly used English football betting money managing strategies are: Kelly, row-of-numbers and Martingale. While the 1st two don't need any prior details, the Kelly criterion needs punter to decide on probability of win.


So, let's consider the football betting tips.


- Prior to presenting performance analysis, one must take a look at the strategies that were mentioned before.


a.) Martingale strategy: Is doubling a stack after losing and returning once again to starting stack, once you have gained a win. In fact this is a well known strategy which promises positive profits; however, they require intensive cash investments.


b.) Row-of-numbers: Is planning several series of the constant profits. When betting odds are given to you, punter calculates for every stake so as to permit them to attain planned profitnangthan.com. And while they lose, they must increase the upcoming stack in a way to get profit both as money that was already lost & planned profits mainly for lost games. Indeed this is a less aggressive strategy which is still dangerous.


c.) Kelly criterion: Is proven to be mathematically a best strategy while in the long run. But, it needs one to know the winning probability. Here, stacks are premeditated proportionally to your fund size and as per the relation with the betting-odds and winning probability. When odds and probability are high, one high-stack would be positioned & vice-versa.


-Data & Methods: For evaluating the performance-rate of every strategy, one needs to analyse betting-odds that is set by the bookmakers for top leagues of Europe. In fact bookmakers are the punters who position a stake with minimalist betting odds on your favorite. Thus, one can estimate the winning probability easily by dividing the average away/draw/home outcomes with the overall number of such games in the season. Indeed the betting loses and results are considered from 4 European top-most leagues that play in the season like 'Spanish Primera Division', 'German Bundesliga 1', 'French Ligue 1' and English Premier.







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